Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from across the border, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and additional electricity failures.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership follows the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does minimal to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
