A decade after the UK entered into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the basics. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his era is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster should engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
